CCS Track Record

After 50 years and billions in public investment, carbon capture and storage has captured less CO2 than the world emits in 8 hours.

The global CCS portfolio as of 2024 captures roughly 51 million tons of CO2 per year. Global annual emissions are roughly 37 billion tons. CCS handles about 0.14% of the problem. The vast majority of operating CCS projects capture CO2 from high-concentration industrial streams (natural gas processing, fertilizer production, hydrogen reforming), not power plants. Only two large-scale power plant CCS projects have operated commercially: Boundary Dam in Saskatchewan (2014) and Petra Nova in Texas (2017-2020). Petra Nova shut down after three years because low oil prices made the CO2 (used for enhanced oil recovery) uneconomic.

The project funnel. Hundreds of CCS projects have been announced. Most never reach final investment decision. Of those that do, many underperform.

If capture technology works in the lab and at pilot scale, why does the project pipeline keep stalling?

Three compounding problems. First, capture adds $60-120/ton to operating costs with no revenue unless the CO2 has a buyer (usually oil companies for enhanced recovery) or a policy price (like 45Q credits). Second, geological storage permitting takes 5-10 years in most jurisdictions. Third, cost overruns on first-of-a-kind projects destroy investor confidence. Boundary Dam came in 30% over budget and initially captured only 65% of the CO2 it was designed to handle.

Cement and steel plants have no proven alternative to captured carbon, which is the strongest argument for continuing to fund CCS. But fifty years and billions of dollars have not produced a template that scales, and the next project should have to explain why it will be different rather than assume the technology just needs more time.

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