Nuclear Cost Reduction Paths
Prerequisites
The West has two nuclear cost problems. The first: new large reactors cost $10,000+/kW versus $2,500/kW in South Korea. The second: even at South Korean costs, nuclear competes poorly with $1,000-1,500/kW solar-plus-storage on LCOE. Solving the first problem requires industrial policy. Solving the second requires redefining what nuclear is worth.
Path 1: Rebuild the industrial base. South Korea's costs prove that Western physics is not the problem. The US could commit to a multi-unit build program (6-10 standardized reactors) with a single design, single contractor, and continuous workforce. This is what France did starting in the 1970s (56 reactors in 15 years, per WNA/IAEA PRIS data). Estimated cost trajectory: first unit at $8,000/kW, declining to $4,000-5,000/kW by units 5-6 as learning-curve effects compound.
Path 2: Factory-built SMRs at scale. If SMR factories achieve production volumes of 10+ units per year, costs could theoretically fall to $4,000-6,000/kW. But no factory exists yet, and the NuScale cancellation demonstrated that the first customers bear costs that make the economics unworkable.
Even at $4,000/kW, nuclear LCOE would be $60-80/MWh versus $30-50/MWh for solar-plus-storage. Can nuclear ever compete on LCOE?
Probably not, and that may be the wrong metric. Nuclear's value proposition is firm, dispatchable, zero-carbon power available 24/7 regardless of weather. System-level studies consistently show that grids above 80% renewables need some firm clean capacity, and nuclear is one of the few options. The relevant comparison is not LCOE versus solar but the total system cost of a grid with nuclear versus one relying entirely on renewables plus long-duration storage.
France built 56 nuclear reactors in 15 years at declining costs. This experience suggests that the most effective path to reducing Western nuclear costs is:
Learning curves require repetition. A single demonstration plant captures no learning-curve benefit. France and South Korea both achieved low costs through sustained, standardized build programs that maintained workforce expertise and supply chain relationships across dozens of units.
The answer is BLesson complete
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