Transmission Expansion Crisis

The US has roughly 1,400 GW of solar and wind projects waiting in interconnection queues. Average wait time: over 5 years. The bottleneck is not panels or turbines. It is the transmission lines to connect them. Building new transmission is the single greatest infrastructure challenge facing US decarbonization.

Three barriers block transmission expansion. First, permitting: a new interstate transmission line requires approvals from every county and state it crosses, with no single federal siting authority (unlike pipelines, which have FERC). Second, cost allocation: who pays for a line that crosses three states but primarily benefits a fourth? FERC has spent decades trying to resolve this question. Third, local opposition: communities accept the electricity but reject the towers. "Not in my backyard" applies to power lines as much as power plants.

Size the gap. The US built an average of roughly 650-700 circuit-miles of high-voltage transmission per year from 2015-2023, down sharply from roughly 1,700 miles/year in 2010-2014. Meeting renewable energy targets requires roughly 3,000-5,000 circuit-miles per year. Current build rates fall 75-85% short.

Why can't renewable projects just connect to existing lines?

Location mismatch. The best wind and solar resources are in the Great Plains and desert Southwest. Demand is concentrated on the coasts and in cities. Existing transmission was built to connect coal and gas plants near demand, not remote renewable sites. New long-distance lines are needed precisely where none exist.

Transmission is the binding infrastructure constraint on the US energy transition.

---