Battery Mineral Supply Chains

The Democratic Republic of Congo produces 70% of the world's cobalt. China refines 70% of global lithium and 80% of battery-grade graphite. These concentrations make battery supply chains a geopolitical issue, not just an industrial one.

Different battery chemistries require different minerals, creating distinct supply chain risks. NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) batteries need cobalt (DRC-concentrated, often mined under poor labor conditions), nickel (Indonesia, Philippines, Russia), and manganese (South Africa, Gabon). NCA (nickel cobalt aluminum) has similar cobalt exposure. LFP (lithium iron phosphate) avoids cobalt and nickel entirely, using abundant iron and phosphate. This supply chain advantage is a major reason LFP has captured over 50% of global battery production since 2023. Sodium-ion batteries, still early-stage, use no lithium, cobalt, or nickel at all, relying on sodium (from salt), iron, and manganese.

Trace the lithium chain. Lithium is extracted from brine (Chile, Argentina) or hard rock (Australia). Refined into battery-grade lithium hydroxide or carbonate, primarily in China. Fabricated into cells, primarily in China, South Korea, and Japan.

Assess concentration risk. Three countries control 85% of lithium refining. If trade disruptions cut access to refined lithium, EV and grid storage production would stall within months.

Why has China's dominance in battery refining persisted despite Western efforts to build domestic supply chains?

Scale and cost advantage. China invested early and built refining capacity at a scale that produces lower unit costs. New refineries in the U.S. and Europe face higher labor costs, longer permitting timelines, and 5-10 year construction periods.

Battery chemistry choices are simultaneously engineering decisions and supply chain strategy, with LFP and sodium-ion offering paths to reduced geopolitical exposure.

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